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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ bengals week 5, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-2
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
66°F
3 mph
27
CINBengals
4-0
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
66°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Seahawks
7
3
8
0
0
18
Bengals
7
0
0
17
3
27

Spread

SEA logo
CIN logo
3
P

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
397
419
Total Plays
57
79
Yards / Play
7.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.00
Passing Yards
197
310
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
30/44(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.16
Rushing Yards
200
109
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.40
-12.15
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-16
-21
Sack EPA
-5.87
-5.43
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
112
50
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-5.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+22.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
12/14
-6.2
14
12/21
14.3
99
12/28
-4.2
25
01/10
5.9
86
01/18
-9.9
3
02/01
1.3
60
09/13
-1.1
43
09/20
4.3
80
09/27
-1.2
42
10/05
-0.1
50
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.9
Value
Ptile
11/30
-4.5
23
12/07
7.3
89
12/14
-6.2
14
12/22
1.0
57
12/28
-2.2
34
01/04
-4.0
25
09/13
5.3
84
09/20
3.9
78
09/27
7.2
92
10/04
6.1
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Bengals Defense
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
8
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7

EPA

EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
12
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
5
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Bengals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bengals logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3

EPA

EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
23
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
6
19
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
5
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
10
W
P
U
12/21
29
W
W
O
12/28
14
W
W
U
01/10
14
W
W
O
01/18
6
W
L
O
02/01
-4
L
L
O
09/13
-3
L
L
O
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
26
W
W
U
10/05
3
W
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
1
W
L
U
12/07
-21
L
L
O
12/14
30
W
W
U
12/22
9
W
W
O
12/28
-10
L
L
U
01/04
-16
L
L
U
09/13
20
W
W
O
09/20
5
W
W
U
09/27
4
W
W
O
10/04
15
W
W
O