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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ broncos week 21, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
15-3
43
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
4 mph
8
DENBroncos
15-3
DEN logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
6
8
14
7
35
Broncos
0
0
8
0
8

Spread

SEA logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
341
308
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
6.2
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.26
Passing Yards
--
281
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
34/50(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.28
Rushing Yards
135
27
Rush Attempts
29
14
Yards / Rush
4.7
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
58%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.59
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-1
Sack EPA
--
-2.40
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
104
44
Penalty EPA
-12.60
-9.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,709
Away nfelo
1,714
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+47.6
Home QB Adjustment
+26.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Value
Ptile
11/03
3.9
76
11/10
5.8
85
11/17
2.8
69
12/02
11.2
97
12/08
-2.0
39
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
-7.1
10
12/29
-4.0
24
01/11
-6.0
14
01/19
-2.4
36
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Value
Ptile
11/10
7.5
91
11/17
5.0
84
11/24
-3.8
25
12/01
8.5
93
12/08
12.6
98
12/12
2.6
68
12/22
10.5
96
12/29
9.1
94
01/12
2.4
67
01/19
11.0
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Broncos Defense
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5

EPA

EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
21
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Broncos Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
1
1
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7

EPA

EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
19
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
25
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
2
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
3
W
L
O
11/10
23
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
U
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
U
01/11
8
W
L
U
01/19
6
W
W
P
DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
O
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/22
24
W
W
U
12/29
20
W
W
U
01/12
7
W
L
U
01/19
10
W
W
U