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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ chargers week 2, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
1-0
21
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
94°F
8 mph
30
LACChargers
0-1
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
94°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
7
7
0
21
Chargers
3
17
7
3
30

Spread

LAC logo
+5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
288
377
Total Plays
40
75
Yards / Play
7.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.15
Passing Yards
180
276
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.46
Rushing Yards
108
101
Rush Attempts
13
37
Yards / Rush
8.3
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.39
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
8
17
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-22
-8
Sack EPA
-4.65
-2.36
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
53
53
Penalty EPA
-11.27
-6.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model60.3%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,670
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
-72.9
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
11/17
2.8
69
12/02
11.2
97
12/08
-2.0
39
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
-7.1
10
12/29
-4.0
24
01/11
-6.0
14
01/19
-2.4
36
02/02
5.7
85
09/04
3.3
72
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
11/17
0.5
54
11/24
10.3
96
12/01
0.5
53
12/08
5.3
84
12/12
-0.4
48
12/22
-3.2
30
12/29
0.6
54
01/05
0.5
53
01/12
0.1
51
09/08
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Chargers Defense
Seahawks logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
8
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25

EPA

EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
1
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
16
Interceptions / Game
5
28
Fumbles / Game
9
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Chargers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Chargers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
17
1
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4

EPA

EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
27
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
15
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
U
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
U
01/11
8
W
L
U
01/19
6
W
W
P
02/02
35
W
W
O
09/04
20
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/22
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
O
01/05
17
W
W
U
01/12
-7
L
W
U
09/08
-1
L
W
U