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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ chiefs week 16, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
7-7
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
12°F
9 mph
24
KCChiefs
11-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
12°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
0
7
10
Chiefs
7
10
0
7
24

Spread

KC logo
-10

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
333
297
Total Plays
73
51
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.04
Passing Yards
200
220
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.08
Rushing Yards
133
77
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
14%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.57
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-4
Sack EPA
-2.86
-1.30
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
35
39
Penalty EPA
-3.58
-4.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+260
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+70.3
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+14.8
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
10/09
4.1
81
10/16
-3.9
24
10/23
-0.1
51
10/30
1.8
66
11/06
3.6
79
11/13
4.2
81
11/27
1.3
61
12/04
4.2
82
12/11
-1.0
45
12/15
2.8
74
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Value
Ptile
10/10
6.0
89
10/16
2.1
69
10/23
9.6
96
11/06
8.0
93
11/13
10.2
97
11/20
6.8
91
11/27
5.5
86
12/04
2.2
70
12/11
1.8
66
12/18
13.7
100

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
16
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
12
21
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
24
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Chiefs Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Chiefs logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30

EPA

EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
6
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
2
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-7
L
L
O
10/16
10
W
W
U
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
14
W
W
U
11/06
10
W
W
O
11/13
-5
L
L
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/04
4
W
L
O
12/11
-6
L
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
1
W
L
O
10/16
-4
L
L
U
10/23
21
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/13
10
W
P
U
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/27
16
W
L
U
12/04
-3
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
L
O
12/18
6
W
L
O