SEASeahawks
7-7
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
12°F
9 mph
24
KCChiefs
11-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
12°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
0
7
10
Chiefs
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
297
Total Plays
73
51
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.04
Passing Yards
200
220
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.08
Rushing Yards
133
77
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
14%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.57
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-4
Sack EPA
-2.86
-1.30
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
35
39
Penalty EPA
-3.58
-4.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+70.4
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+14.8
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
12
21
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
24
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Chiefs Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
6
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-5
O/U