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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ colts week 4, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
1-2
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
34
INDColts
3-0
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
0
14
17
Colts
7
14
7
6
34

Spread

IND logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
279
431
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
4.0
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.18
Passing Yards
230
--
Comp/Att
33/45(73%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.40
Rushing Yards
49
78
Rush Attempts
19
22
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
67%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.41
-2.83
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-12.78
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-6.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model81.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+291
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+21.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
256.4
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

S. Wallace headshot

S. Wallace

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Value
Ptile
11/19
-1.6
39
10/19
-3.1
27
10/26
3.0
72
11/02
-4.1
22
11/09
-2.0
36
12/07
8.9
96
12/14
-2.5
31
12/21
1.9
65
12/28
-1.3
42
09/27
-1.8
39
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Value
Ptile
11/23
3.8
77
11/30
-4.9
16
12/07
9.6
97
12/14
6.5
89
12/18
13.3
100
12/28
0.6
56
01/03
2.5
69
09/13
3.2
71
09/21
5.7
85
09/27
10.4
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Colts Defense
Seahawks logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20

EPA

EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
31
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Colts Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Colts logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14

EPA

EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
27
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
11
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
2
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-6
L
L
P
11/23
-3
L
P
P
11/27
-25
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
W
P
12/14
3
W
W
P
12/21
10
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/13
28
W
W
U
09/20
-13
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
3
W
W
P
11/30
4
W
P
P
12/07
32
W
W
P
12/14
10
W
L
P
12/18
7
W
W
P
12/28
23
W
W
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
2
W
L
U
09/21
4
W
W
O
09/27
21
W
W
U