SEASeahawks
1-2
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
034
INDColts
3-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
0
14
17
Colts
7
14
7
6
34
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
431
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
4.0
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.18
Passing Yards
230
--
Comp/Att
33/45(73%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.40
Rushing Yards
49
78
Rush Attempts
19
22
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
67%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.41
-2.83
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-12.78
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-6.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model81.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+291
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+21.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
256.4
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
S. Wallace
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20
EPA
EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
31
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Colts Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
27
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
11
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Colts
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
1-2-7
O/U