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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ commanders week 18, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
11-5
24
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph
14
WASCommanders
10-6
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
13
0
11
24
Commanders
14
0
0
0
14

Spread

SEA logo
-3

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
382
203
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.13
Passing Yards
158
99
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
13/29(45%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.18
Rushing Yards
224
104
Rush Attempts
37
23
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.60
-5.95
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-31
-16
Sack EPA
-10.23
-2.90
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.04
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-21.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.4
Away QB Adjustment
+43.4
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+43.4
Value
Ptile
10/18
-7.6
7
10/28
3.9
74
11/04
3.3
71
11/11
1.2
58
11/25
6.0
87
12/02
9.2
95
12/09
-1.2
40
12/16
11.9
98
12/23
5.4
83
12/30
3.8
73
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Value
Ptile
10/14
12.5
99
10/21
6.9
89
10/28
-2.1
35
11/04
-1.9
36
11/18
10.8
97
11/22
6.1
87
12/03
5.5
84
12/09
1.2
58
12/23
-0.2
48
12/30
0.6
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9

EPA

EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
5
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Commanders logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11

EPA

EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
2
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
5
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-7
L
W
U
10/28
-4
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
21
W
W
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
58
W
W
O
12/16
33
W
W
O
12/23
29
W
W
O
12/30
7
W
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-4
L
W
U
10/28
-15
L
L
U
11/04
-8
L
L
U
11/18
25
W
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
O
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/09
3
W
W
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/23
7
W
W
O
12/30
10
W
W
U