SEASeahawks
11-5
24
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph
14
WASCommanders
10-6
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
13
0
11
24
Commanders
14
0
0
0
14
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
203
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.13
Passing Yards
158
99
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
13/29(45%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.18
Rushing Yards
224
104
Rush Attempts
37
23
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.60
-5.95
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-31
-16
Sack EPA
-10.23
-2.90
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.04
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-21.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.4
Away QB Adjustment
+43.4
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+43.4
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
5
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11
EPA
EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U