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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ cowboys week 13, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
6-5
35
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
41
DALCowboys
8-3
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
14
7
7
35
Cowboys
10
10
7
14
41

Spread

SEA logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
406
413
Total Plays
64
80
Yards / Play
6.3
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.25
Passing Yards
334
277
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.35
Rushing Yards
72
136
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
25
33
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
6
3rd Down %
64%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
8
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.61
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
-0.52
-6.40
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
130
127
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-12.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.4%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+279
Home nfelo
1,706
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+28.9
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-16.1
Net QB Adjustment
+44.0
Home QB Adjustment
+29.6
Away QB Adjustment
-14.4
Market Regression
+15.0
Final Difference
245.6
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.4
Value
Ptile
09/17
8.1
94
09/24
-1.2
42
10/02
-4.0
24
10/15
-2.0
35
10/22
-0.9
44
10/29
-0.2
48
11/05
-9.0
5
11/12
7.2
91
11/19
0.0
49
11/23
-7.0
11
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.6
Value
Ptile
09/17
7.1
91
09/24
-1.1
42
10/01
3.5
73
10/08
-9.1
5
10/16
3.1
70
10/29
7.2
91
11/05
4.2
77
11/12
14.0
100
11/19
3.0
69
11/23
9.7
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18

EPA

EPA / Play
9
9
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
12
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
15
11
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
17
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Cowboys Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cowboys logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
7
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
12
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
6
W
W
O
09/24
10
W
W
O
10/02
21
W
W
U
10/15
-4
L
L
U
10/22
10
W
W
U
10/29
4
W
P
O
11/05
-34
L
L
U
11/12
3
W
L
O
11/19
-1
L
W
U
11/23
-18
L
L
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
20
W
W
O
09/24
-12
L
L
O
10/01
35
W
W
U
10/08
-32
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
W
U
10/29
23
W
W
O
11/05
-5
L
L
O
11/12
32
W
W
O
11/19
23
W
W
P
11/23
35
W
W
O