SEASeahawks
8-1
33
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
010
ATLFalcons
2-6
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
20
3
7
33
Falcons
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
490
226
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
7.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.38
-0.05
Passing Yards
279
162
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.78
-0.16
Rushing Yards
211
64
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
60%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.09
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-10
Sack EPA
-2.19
+1.56
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
80
--
Penalty EPA
-6.05
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-102
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
+37.0
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
21
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
11
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
1
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
16
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U