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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ falcons week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
8-1
33
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
10
ATLFalcons
2-6
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
20
3
7
33
Falcons
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

SEA logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
490
226
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
7.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.38
-0.05
Passing Yards
279
162
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.78
-0.16
Rushing Yards
211
64
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
60%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.09
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-10
Sack EPA
-2.19
+1.56
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
80
--
Penalty EPA
-6.05
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
+36.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Value
Ptile
01/13
10.4
97
09/08
4.3
80
09/15
-7.4
10
09/22
2.9
70
09/29
-5.2
18
10/06
4.1
78
10/13
5.2
84
10/17
4.0
78
10/28
-6.0
14
11/03
3.9
76
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
01/13
4.8
80
01/20
9.1
94
09/08
1.7
62
09/15
8.9
94
09/22
2.1
65
09/29
5.9
86
10/07
9.1
94
10/20
6.1
87
10/27
-7.7
9
11/03
-3.0
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31

EPA

EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
21
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
11
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
20
1
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7

EPA

EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
23
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
16
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
19
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/13
-2
L
W
O
09/08
5
W
W
U
09/15
26
W
W
U
09/22
28
W
W
O
09/29
3
W
W
O
10/06
-6
L
L
O
10/13
7
W
L
U
10/17
12
W
W
O
10/28
5
W
L
U
11/03
3
W
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/13
2
W
L
O
01/20
-4
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
7
W
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
O
10/20
8
W
W
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
U