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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ jaguars week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
3-2
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
12
JAXJaguars
4-1
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
13
7
0
20
Jaguars
6
0
0
6
12

Spread

SEA logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
346
273
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
6.4
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.12
Passing Yards
286
214
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.01
Rushing Yards
60
59
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-9
-44
Sack EPA
-2.40
-10.10
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
56
76
Penalty EPA
-4.32
-9.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model48.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
-9.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-12.5
Final Difference
9.8
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Value
Ptile
12/16
-2.7
30
12/22
2.1
64
12/29
7.9
92
01/05
-8.0
5
01/13
-8.9
4
09/07
-1.3
40
09/14
-0.4
47
09/21
3.7
76
09/25
0.4
54
10/05
9.2
96
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Value
Ptile
10/13
-0.0
49
10/20
3.3
72
10/27
5.3
81
11/03
-5.1
16
12/01
-7.2
8
09/07
-2.2
35
09/14
-0.5
46
09/21
-4.9
18
09/28
0.5
55
10/06
5.0
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Seahawks logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
8
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1

EPA

EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
29
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
18
19
Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3

EPA

EPA / Play
13
2
EPA / Pass
15
8
EPA / Rush
14
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
26
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
11
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
12
W
W
O
12/15
-17
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/26
3
W
L
U
01/05
5
W
L
O
09/07
-4
L
L
U
09/14
14
W
W
O
09/21
31
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
4
W
W
U
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-5
L
L
U
12/29
7
W
W
U
01/05
-3
L
W
O
09/07
16
W
W
U
09/14
-4
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
5
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O