SEASeahawks
3-2
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
12
JAXJaguars
4-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
13
7
0
20
Jaguars
6
0
0
6
12
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
273
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
6.4
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.12
Passing Yards
286
214
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.01
Rushing Yards
60
59
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-9
-44
Sack EPA
-2.40
-10.10
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
56
76
Penalty EPA
-4.32
-9.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model48.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
-9.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
11.4
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2
EPA
EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
26
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
4
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
23
8
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U