SEASeahawks
4-3
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
028
DETLions
2-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
14
0
7
24
Lions
7
7
0
14
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
415
Total Plays
54
73
Yards / Play
6.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.20
Passing Yards
--
331
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.36
Rushing Yards
133
84
Rush Attempts
19
22
Yards / Rush
7.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
12
23
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
33%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
3
12
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.02
-3.26
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-4.06
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
10
61
Penalty EPA
-0.57
-8.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+10.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
9
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
5
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
26
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U