SEASeahawks
3-5
0
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
11 mph
17
GBPackers
7-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
0
0
0
Packers
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
208
393
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
3.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.04
Passing Yards
133
287
Comp/Att
20/40(50%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.05
Rushing Yards
75
106
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.37
-4.47
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-28
-5
Sack EPA
-5.64
-1.00
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
39
43
Penalty EPA
-5.06
-4.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+15.8
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.4
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
-55.7
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
20
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
32
7
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
12
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
7
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U