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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ patriots week 22, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
16-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
0
NEPatriots
17-3
NE logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-147
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,738
Home Field
-23.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-23.9
Net QB Adjustment
+22.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Value
Ptile
11/16
-4.7
19
11/23
1.2
59
11/30
-7.7
6
12/07
2.7
70
12/14
-0.4
47
12/18
-2.4
35
12/28
-5.8
14
01/03
-2.7
32
01/17
-4.2
23
01/25
6.2
89
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Value
Ptile
11/13
3.4
75
11/23
0.5
56
12/01
2.9
72
12/14
0.6
57
12/21
4.4
80
12/28
10.8
98
01/04
3.3
75
01/11
0.5
56
01/18
-2.2
36
01/25
-2.4
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4

EPA

EPA / Play
8
5
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
27
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Patriots logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
6
7
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3

EPA

EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
22
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
22
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-2
L
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
O
11/30
26
W
W
U
12/07
28
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/28
17
W
W
U
01/03
10
W
W
U
01/17
35
W
W
O
01/25
4
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/14
-4
L
L
O
12/21
4
W
W
O
12/28
32
W
W
O
01/04
28
W
W
O
01/11
13
W
W
U
01/18
12
W
W
O
01/25
3
W
L
U