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  1. nfelo...
  2. model...
  3. seahawks @ patriots week 22, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Model

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

SEA logo
SEASeahawks
16-3
29
TBD
Levi's Stadium
67°F
7 mph
13
NEPatriots
17-3
NE logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
67°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
6
3
11
23
Patriots
0
0
0
13
13

Spread

SEA logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
335
331
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
4.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.23
Passing Yards
194
252
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.49
Rushing Yards
141
79
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-19.62
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-8
-43
Sack EPA
-1.43
-11.23
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
25
25
Penalty EPA
-1.45
-2.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-147
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,738
Home Field
-23.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-23.9
Net QB Adjustment
+22.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Value
Ptile
11/16
-4.7
19
11/23
1.2
59
11/30
-7.7
6
12/07
2.7
70
12/14
-0.4
47
12/18
-2.4
35
12/28
-5.8
14
01/03
-2.7
32
01/17
-4.2
23
01/25
6.2
89
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Value
Ptile
11/13
3.4
75
11/23
0.5
56
12/01
2.9
72
12/14
0.6
57
12/21
4.4
80
12/28
10.8
98
01/04
3.3
75
01/11
0.5
56
01/18
-2.2
36
01/25
-2.4
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6

EPA

EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
28
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
25
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Patriots logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
6
7
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3

EPA

EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
21
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
20
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-2
L
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
O
11/30
26
W
W
U
12/07
28
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/28
17
W
W
U
01/03
10
W
W
U
01/17
35
W
W
O
01/25
4
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/14
-4
L
L
O
12/21
4
W
W
O
12/28
32
W
W
O
01/04
28
W
W
O
01/11
13
W
W
U
01/18
12
W
W
O
01/25
3
W
L
U