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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ rams week 11, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
6-3
16
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
17
LARRams
3-6
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
6
3
0
16
Rams
0
7
0
10
17

Spread

SEA logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
291
267
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
4.6
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
223
185
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.15
Rushing Yards
68
82
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
33%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.30
-3.34
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-5
Sack EPA
-3.62
-1.80
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
130
92
Penalty EPA
-14.34
-9.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+36.9
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
+12.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
+54.8
Final Difference
25.2
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Value
Ptile
01/14
2.7
73
09/10
-2.8
30
09/17
8.1
94
09/24
-1.2
42
10/02
-4.0
24
10/15
-2.0
35
10/22
-0.9
44
10/29
-0.2
48
11/05
-9.0
5
11/12
7.2
91
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
11/06
-6.3
12
11/20
0.8
57
09/10
3.6
73
09/17
0.4
52
09/25
-8.1
8
10/01
1.3
58
10/08
-2.1
34
10/15
-2.9
29
10/22
-3.0
29
10/29
-1.9
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
17
18
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
13

EPA

EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
12
19
EPA / Rush
12
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
15
24
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
31
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
8
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
3
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
15
RZ Efficiency
8
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-17
L
L
U
09/17
6
W
W
O
09/24
10
W
W
O
10/02
21
W
W
U
10/15
-4
L
L
U
10/22
10
W
W
U
10/29
4
W
P
O
11/05
-34
L
L
U
11/12
3
W
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
-3
L
W
U
09/10
17
W
W
U
09/17
-7
L
W
O
09/25
-3
L
P
U
10/01
6
W
W
O
10/08
-9
L
L
U
10/15
17
W
W
U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
10/29
-23
L
L
O
11/05
-17
L
L
U