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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ rams week 12, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
3-7
27
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
17
LARRams
1-9
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
1
3
10
21
Rams
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

SEA logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
265
364
Total Plays
57
78
Yards / Play
4.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.21
Passing Yards
95
251
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.32
Rushing Yards
170
113
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
5
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.63
-13.05
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-31
Sack EPA
-1.41
-7.24
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
52
35
Penalty EPA
-6.24
-7.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,323
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.8
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Value
Ptile
11/23
-4.9
17
11/27
-6.0
10
09/13
5.4
84
09/20
-3.2
30
10/11
6.7
88
10/18
-13.5
1
11/01
1.2
57
11/08
5.6
85
11/15
-5.2
19
11/22
0.2
51
K. Boller headshot

K. Boller

Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
09/16
4.4
80
10/14
-3.3
30
10/21
0.6
54
11/18
-7.0
8
11/25
-0.8
43
12/03
3.7
76
12/09
-5.3
17
12/16
-4.9
19
10/04
-9.5
3
10/11
-2.3
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27

EPA

EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
24
30
EPA / Rush
31
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
24
31
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
30
29
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14

EPA

EPA / Play
32
21
EPA / Pass
31
28
EPA / Rush
30
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
19
23
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
31
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
28
W
W
U
09/20
-13
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
O
10/04
-17
L
L
O
10/11
41
W
W
U
10/18
-24
L
L
U
11/01
-21
L
L
O
11/08
12
W
W
O
11/15
-11
L
L
O
11/22
-26
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-28
L
L
U
09/20
-2
L
W
U
09/27
-19
L
L
O
10/04
-35
L
L
U
10/11
-28
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
10/25
-36
L
L
O
11/01
7
W
W
U
11/15
-5
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
W
U