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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ steelers week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
1-0
28
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
81°F
3 mph
26
PITSteelers
0-1
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
81°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
7
14
7
28
Steelers
0
10
3
13
26

Spread

SEA logo
+4

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
425
261
Total Plays
72
52
Yards / Play
5.9
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.03
Passing Yards
274
180
Comp/Att
29/35(83%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.19
Rushing Yards
151
81
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.38
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.96
-2.88
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-7
Sack EPA
-7.37
-2.40
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
93
78
Penalty EPA
-9.38
-2.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+109.8
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+31.3
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
11/11
5.1
81
11/15
1.7
59
11/25
4.5
77
12/02
1.7
59
12/10
-4.9
18
12/16
1.9
61
12/23
5.5
83
12/30
-9.9
3
01/05
3.6
73
09/08
-2.3
36
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
11/04
5.6
83
11/08
13.9
99
11/18
-1.1
39
11/25
6.8
88
12/02
3.0
70
12/09
5.6
84
12/16
-3.1
27
12/23
7.0
90
12/30
0.8
52
09/08
-2.1
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Steelers Defense
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
6
14

EPA

EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
19
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
7
3
Steelers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Steelers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
27
19
Yards / Game
30
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22

EPA

EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
32
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
32
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-5
L
W
O
11/15
3
W
P
O
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
O
12/10
14
W
W
U
12/16
-3
L
L
O
12/23
7
W
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
O
01/05
-2
L
W
O
09/08
1
W
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/08
31
W
W
O
11/18
4
W
P
U
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
-3
L
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
U
09/08
-30
L
L
U