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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ 49ers week 3, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
0-2
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
79°F
3 mph
24
SF49ers
2-0
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
79°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
6
0
7
7
20
49ers
0
3
14
7
24

Spread

PIT logo
+6

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
239
436
Total Plays
51
73
Yards / Play
4.7
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.17
Passing Yards
160
268
Comp/Att
14/27(52%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.11
Rushing Yards
79
168
Rush Attempts
22
40
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
11
26
Passing 1st downs
5
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-9.11
-24.14
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-2.56
-1.59
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
42
71
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-6.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model73.5%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.4%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+78.3
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+147.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-143.1
Market Regression
-7.9
Final Difference
177.5
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-143.1
No recent game data available
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
12/03
-0.4
49
12/10
-1.1
44
12/17
5.3
85
12/24
5.9
88
12/31
1.4
63
09/09
-8.3
7
09/16
-3.1
27
09/23
0.6
50
09/08
-4.0
25
09/15
4.4
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Steelers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
12

EPA

EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
32
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
22
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
8
RZ Efficiency
32
27
49ers Offense vs Steelers Defense
49ers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
5
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14

EPA

EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
8
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
24
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
19
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
31
W
W
O
11/18
4
W
P
U
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
-3
L
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
U
09/08
-30
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
31
W
W
U
11/12
-4
L
L
O
11/25
-18
L
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
O
12/09
6
W
W
U
12/16
3
W
W
O
12/23
-5
L
L
U
12/30
-16
L
L
O
09/08
14
W
W
U
09/15
24
W
W
O