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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bears week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-4
28
TBD
Soldier Field
51°F
3 mph
31
CHIBears
7-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
51°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
8
0
7
22
Bears
7
10
7
7
31

Spread

PIT logo
CHI logo
3
P

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
345
328
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.01
Passing Yards
159
229
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.02
Rushing Yards
186
99
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.44
-10.90
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-6.46
-6.44
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
41
83
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-8.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+44.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+52.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
-39.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-39.2
Value
Ptile
12/23
3.7
74
12/31
1.2
57
01/06
1.2
57
01/15
3.1
71
10/20
-2.4
31
10/27
0.4
51
11/03
1.6
60
12/22
-3.3
26
12/29
-4.9
16
01/05
-3.5
24
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
4.5
80
09/14
-2.8
31
09/21
8.3
95
09/28
-3.2
28
10/13
-0.2
49
10/19
-6.3
11
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
5.8
88
11/09
5.5
86
11/16
-3.4
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bears Defense
Steelers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
17
23
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
26

EPA

EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
11
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Bears Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bears logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
17
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15

EPA

EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
4
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
23
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
23
31
RZ Efficiency
19
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
2
W
L
O
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
L
O
10/26
-10
L
L
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U
11/16
22
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-31
L
L
O
09/21
17
W
W
U
09/28
1
W
W
O
10/13
1
W
W
U
10/19
12
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/02
5
W
W
O
11/09
4
W
L
U
11/16
2
W
W
U