nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bears week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-4
28
TBD
Soldier Field
51°F
3 mph
31
CHIBears
7-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
51°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
8
0
7
22
Bears
7
10
7
7
31

Spread

PIT logo
CHI logo
3
P

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
345
328
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.01
Passing Yards
159
229
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.02
Rushing Yards
186
99
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.44
-10.90
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-6.46
-6.44
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
41
83
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-8.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+35.5
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+52.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
-39.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-39.2
Value
Ptile
12/23
3.7
74
12/31
1.2
57
01/06
1.2
57
01/15
3.1
71
10/20
-2.5
31
10/27
0.3
51
11/03
1.6
60
12/22
-3.3
26
12/29
-4.9
16
01/05
-3.6
24
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
4.5
80
09/14
-2.8
30
09/21
8.3
95
09/28
-3.2
28
10/13
-0.2
49
10/19
-6.3
11
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
5.8
88
11/09
5.5
86
11/16
-3.4
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bears Defense
Steelers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
26
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28

EPA

EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
8
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
20
9
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Bears Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bears logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12

EPA

EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
4
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
19
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
2
W
L
O
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
L
O
10/26
-10
L
L
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U
11/16
22
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-31
L
L
O
09/21
17
W
W
U
09/28
1
W
W
O
10/13
1
W
W
U
10/19
12
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/02
5
W
W
O
11/09
4
W
L
U
11/16
2
W
W
U