PITSteelers
2-2
28
TBD
Paycor Stadium
51°F
6 mph
21
CINBengals
4-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
51°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
14
3
11
28
Bengals
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
483
275
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
7.1
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
213
Comp/Att
32/47(68%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.11
Rushing Yards
112
62
Rush Attempts
21
13
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-4.20
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
69
30
Penalty EPA
-7.53
-4.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+51.1
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-13.5
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
15
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
19
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
18
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
16
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U