PITSteelers
2-3
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
55°F
1 mph
17
CINBengals
3-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
55°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
11
3
7
24
Bengals
7
7
3
0
17
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
185
Total Plays
71
49
Yards / Play
6.1
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.01
Passing Yards
266
--
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
14/28(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.39
Rushing Yards
167
80
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
63%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.20
-5.29
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-7.78
--
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
50
20
Penalty EPA
-4.36
-2.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-65
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-26.0
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
12
17
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U