PITSteelers
5-2
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
44°F
2 mph
21
CINBengals
2-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
44°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
10
0
7
27
Bengals
0
7
0
14
21
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
272
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
5.1
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.22
Passing Yards
193
218
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.05
Rushing Yards
121
54
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.43
-7.23
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-30
Sack EPA
-1.84
-6.67
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
73
--
Penalty EPA
-10.73
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+56.8
Market Regression
-58.7
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+56.8
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
6
14
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
31
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U