PITSteelers
6-3
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
23 mph
17
CINBengals
6-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
14
3
7
0
24
Bengals
7
3
7
0
17
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
279
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.05
Passing Yards
223
--
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.14
Rushing Yards
105
109
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
18
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.97
-8.37
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-4.61
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
31
35
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-2.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
8
11
EPA / Rush
7
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
27
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
15
29
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
9
EPA / Pass
18
7
EPA / Rush
21
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
8
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
28
RZ Efficiency
25
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
9-1
ATS
7-3
O/U