PITSteelers
5-5
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
46°F
10 mph
10
CINBengals
0-10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
46°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
6
16
Bengals
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
6
P
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
244
Total Plays
68
51
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.36
Passing Yards
179
158
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.59
Rushing Yards
159
86
Rush Attempts
38
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
11
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
31%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.34
-10.05
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-24
-34
Sack EPA
-4.57
-9.66
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
77
79
Penalty EPA
-9.04
-8.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-185
Home nfelo
1,329
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+27.0
Base HFA
+49.2
Divisional Adj
-22.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.6
Home QB Adjustment
-61.3
Away QB Adjustment
-98.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-98.0
R. Finley
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-61.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
32
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
23
2
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U