PITSteelers
5-4
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
12 mph
41
CINBengals
6-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
0
0
7
10
Bengals
10
15
3
7
35
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
370
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.20
Passing Yards
250
172
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.05
Rushing Yards
51
198
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
54%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.83
-2.54
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-18
Sack EPA
-7.56
-4.55
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
18
Penalty EPA
-4.11
-2.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U