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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bengals week 12, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
5-4
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
12 mph
41
CINBengals
6-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
0
0
7
10
Bengals
10
15
3
7
35

Spread

CIN logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
301
370
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.20
Passing Yards
250
172
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.05
Rushing Yards
51
198
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
54%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.83
-2.54
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-18
Sack EPA
-7.56
-4.55
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
18
Penalty EPA
-4.11
-2.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
01/10
7.3
90
09/12
-3.1
30
09/19
-1.0
45
09/26
-3.7
26
10/03
-2.0
38
10/10
2.1
69
10/17
1.3
62
10/31
-0.4
49
11/08
-1.7
40
11/21
2.9
75
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
09/12
-0.3
51
09/19
-8.0
8
09/26
2.8
74
09/30
5.3
85
10/10
-1.1
45
10/17
0.8
59
10/24
6.1
88
10/31
-1.8
40
11/07
-7.3
10
11/21
-4.1
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7

EPA

EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
19
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32

EPA

EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
22
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
23
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-9
L
L
U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
P
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/14
0
T
L
U
11/21
-4
L
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
U
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
23
W
W
U
10/24
24
W
W
O
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
-25
L
L
O
11/21
19
W
W
U