PITSteelers
9-2
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
61°F
9 mph
20
CINBengals
5-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
61°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
13
23
Bengals
10
7
3
0
20
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
353
Total Plays
63
60
Yards / Play
5.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.12
Passing Yards
282
223
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.19
Rushing Yards
92
130
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.41
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-2.21
-2.89
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
66
173
Penalty EPA
-9.29
-15.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
+8.3
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
3
18
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
16
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13
EPA
EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U