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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bengals week 13, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
9-2
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
61°F
9 mph
20
CINBengals
5-6
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
61°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
13
23
Bengals
10
7
3
0
20

Spread

CIN logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
374
353
Total Plays
63
60
Yards / Play
5.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.12
Passing Yards
282
223
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.19
Rushing Yards
92
130
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.41
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-2.21
-2.89
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
66
173
Penalty EPA
-9.29
-15.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
+17.3
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Value
Ptile
09/17
1.7
65
09/24
-2.3
36
10/01
-1.5
42
10/08
-7.8
9
10/15
-0.0
51
10/22
3.0
75
10/29
0.2
54
11/12
0.1
52
11/16
6.5
89
11/26
8.2
94
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
09/14
-2.9
34
09/24
0.7
57
10/01
8.6
95
10/08
-0.3
50
10/22
-6.5
13
10/29
-0.5
48
11/05
-3.4
28
11/12
2.1
68
11/19
0.4
54
11/26
3.0
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
3
18
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30

EPA

EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
19
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
16
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13

EPA

EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
28
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
11
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
17
W
W
U
09/24
-6
L
L
U
10/01
17
W
W
U
10/08
-21
L
L
U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/22
15
W
W
O
10/29
5
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/16
23
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
L
O
CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-4
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
4
W
W
U
10/22
-15
L
L
O
10/29
1
W
L
O
11/05
-16
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/26
14
W
W
O