PITSteelers
7-5
42
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
8 mph
21
CINBengals
8-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
7
25
42
Bengals
0
14
7
0
21
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
545
408
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
7.8
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.06
Passing Yards
--
322
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.25
Rushing Yards
193
86
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-8.61
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-5.60
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
20
54
Penalty EPA
-1.79
-5.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.9
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
19
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
23
25
EPA / Rush
3
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
10
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
6-3-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U