PITSteelers
7-5
33
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
8 mph
20
CINBengals
10-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
9
1
10
27
Bengals
0
7
3
10
20
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
385
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
5.1
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.06
Passing Yards
270
321
Comp/Att
30/39(77%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.05
Rushing Yards
84
64
Rush Attempts
28
16
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
57%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.70
-18.06
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-4.08
-3.86
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
82
27
Penalty EPA
+1.55
-3.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
Bengals-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+54.7
Base HFA
+61.0
Divisional Adj
-27.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.0
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
+46.4
Market Regression
-21.2
Final Difference
44.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+46.4
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
16
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
5-5
O/U