PITSteelers
8-5
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
24°F
8 mph
20
CINBengals
5-7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
24°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
6
6
9
24
Bengals
10
10
0
0
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
222
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
5.7
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.07
Passing Yards
285
146
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.18
Rushing Yards
97
76
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
7
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.84
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-11
Sack EPA
-0.70
-2.34
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
104
86
Penalty EPA
-10.91
-9.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-58.2
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
6
19
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U