PITSteelers
10-6
18
TBD
Paycor Stadium
51°F
5 mph
16
CINBengals
12-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
51°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
6
9
3
18
Bengals
0
0
0
16
16
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
279
Total Plays
70
69
Yards / Play
5.3
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.22
Passing Yards
202
188
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.27
Rushing Yards
167
91
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
15%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-9.13
-17.80
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-38
-24
Sack EPA
-5.62
-8.76
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
142
64
Penalty EPA
-4.36
-8.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,664
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-127.8
Home QB Adjustment
-96.5
Away QB Adjustment
+31.3
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
R. McCarron
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-96.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
16
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U