nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bengals week 18, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

PIT logo
PITSteelers
10-6
18
TBD
Paycor Stadium
51°F
5 mph
16
CINBengals
12-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
51°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
6
9
3
18
Bengals
0
0
0
16
16

Spread

CIN logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
369
279
Total Plays
70
69
Yards / Play
5.3
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.22
Passing Yards
202
188
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.27
Rushing Yards
167
91
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
15%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-9.13
-17.80
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-38
-24
Sack EPA
-5.62
-8.76
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
142
64
Penalty EPA
-4.36
-8.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,660
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+53.2
Base HFA
+59.3
Divisional Adj
-26.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-127.8
Home QB Adjustment
-96.5
Away QB Adjustment
+31.3
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
Value
Ptile
09/20
11.0
98
09/27
-3.3
26
11/01
-6.2
11
11/08
1.2
59
11/29
4.1
79
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.6
62
12/20
5.5
85
12/27
-6.3
10
01/03
4.1
79
R. McCarron headshot

R. McCarron

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-96.5
Value
Ptile
12/20
-3.4
26
12/28
0.9
56
01/03
-2.5
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7

EPA

EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
7
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
16
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5

EPA

EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
23
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
5
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
-6
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/29
-9
L
L
O
12/06
35
W
W
O
12/13
13
W
W
O
12/20
7
W
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
16
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
6
W
W
U
11/05
21
W
W
U
11/16
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
24
W
W
U
12/06
34
W
W
U
12/13
-13
L
L
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/28
-3
L
W
U
01/03
8
W
L
U