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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bills week 12, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
7-3
19
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
13 mph
16
BUFBills
2-8
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
7
6
0
3
3
19
Bills
0
0
7
9
0
16

Spread

BUF logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
426
329
Total Plays
83
64
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
220
255
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
23/45(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.10
Rushing Yards
206
74
Rush Attempts
45
17
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
63%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
12
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.62
-8.39
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-26
-10
Sack EPA
-6.84
-3.73
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
107
20
Penalty EPA
-9.72
-2.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-39.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
+62.9
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+62.9
Value
Ptile
12/10
-8.8
5
12/20
10.1
96
12/27
-3.6
27
01/03
3.9
75
10/17
4.3
77
10/24
3.8
75
10/31
-4.5
20
11/08
-1.1
42
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
11.8
99
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Value
Ptile
12/20
-3.7
25
01/03
4.6
80
09/26
2.2
63
10/03
1.7
58
10/10
1.7
59
10/24
9.8
97
10/31
-2.5
32
11/07
0.5
52
11/14
-2.5
32
11/21
6.0
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Steelers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
32

EPA

EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
10
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bills logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
2
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
1

EPA

EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
23
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
27
10
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
21
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/19
8
W
W
U
09/26
25
W
W
O
10/03
-3
L
L
U
10/17
18
W
W
O
10/24
1
W
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
32
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-27
L
L
U
09/26
-8
L
W
O
10/03
-24
L
L
O
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/24
-3
L
W
O
10/31
-3
L
W
U
11/07
-3
L
P
U
11/14
2
W
W
U
11/21
18
W
W
O