PITSteelers
7-3
19
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
13 mph
16
BUFBills
2-8
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
7
6
0
3
3
19
Bills
0
0
7
9
0
16
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
329
Total Plays
83
64
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
220
255
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
23/45(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.10
Rushing Yards
206
74
Rush Attempts
45
17
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
63%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
12
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.62
-8.39
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-26
-10
Sack EPA
-6.84
-3.73
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
107
20
Penalty EPA
-9.72
-2.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-125
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-39.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
+62.9
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+62.9
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
32
EPA
EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
2
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
23
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
27
10
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U