PITSteelers
7-5
27
TBD
New Era Field
27°F
9 mph
20
BUFBills
6-6
TBD
New Era Field
27°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
7
7
6
27
Bills
0
7
0
13
20
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
460
275
Total Plays
73
48
Yards / Play
6.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
208
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.13
Rushing Yards
240
67
Rush Attempts
42
18
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-18.09
-3.42
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-5.75
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
46
Penalty EPA
-2.21
-6.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
-1.2
Final Difference
-26.2
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
16
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
7
19
EPA / Rush
3
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
6
RZ Efficiency
16
11
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
10
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U