PITSteelers
10-7
17
TBD
New Era Field
17°F
10 mph
31
BUFBills
11-6
TBD
New Era Field
17°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
7
3
7
17
Bills
14
7
3
7
31
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
368
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
5.1
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.09
Passing Yards
218
189
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.12
Rushing Yards
106
179
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
45%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.66
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-14
Sack EPA
-1.84
-2.56
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-3.70
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,706
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+62.1
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
15
EPA
EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
8
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
25
18
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
5
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
21
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
1
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
7
11
RZ Efficiency
4
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U