PITSteelers
1-0
13
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
83°F
4 mph
6
DENBroncos
0-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
83°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
3
0
13
Broncos
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
295
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
110
231
Comp/Att
13/20(65%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.25
Rushing Yards
141
64
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
31%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.11
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-15
Sack EPA
-2.02
-3.96
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
78
124
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-11.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+63.5
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
-21.9
Home QB Adjustment
-17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-17.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5
EPA
EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11
EPA
EPA / Play
12
8
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
15
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U