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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ broncos week 2, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
1-0
13
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
83°F
4 mph
6
DENBroncos
0-1
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
83°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
3
0
13
Broncos
0
0
0
6
6

Spread

PIT logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
251
295
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
110
231
Comp/Att
13/20(65%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.25
Rushing Yards
141
64
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
31%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.11
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-15
Sack EPA
-2.02
-3.96
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
78
124
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-11.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
-21.8
Home QB Adjustment
-17.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
10/05
5.7
84
10/15
-8.7
6
11/19
3.3
72
11/27
1.1
56
12/10
1.7
60
12/17
-5.8
15
12/24
3.7
74
12/31
3.1
71
01/07
-6.3
13
09/08
-1.1
41
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
-4.2
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Steelers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5

EPA

EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
28
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Broncos logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11

EPA

EPA / Play
12
8
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
15
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
8
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-14
L
L
U
12/07
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
23
W
W
O
12/31
7
W
W
O
01/06
7
W
W
U
01/15
-14
L
L
O
09/08
8
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/19
1
W
L
U
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-25
L
L
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
12/31
7
W
W
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
W
O