PITSteelers
7-2
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
7 mph
24
DENBroncos
4-6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
7
0
17
Broncos
3
7
7
7
24
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
527
308
Total Plays
76
53
Yards / Play
6.9
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.09
Passing Yards
452
184
Comp/Att
42/58(72%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.10
Rushing Yards
75
124
Rush Attempts
16
23
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
19
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.67
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-2.52
-2.97
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
34
50
Penalty EPA
-4.11
-5.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+77.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
12
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
23
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
18
15
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
8
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-2-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U