PITSteelers
11-6
16
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
9 mph
23
DENBroncos
12-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
3
3
16
Broncos
6
3
3
11
23
Spread
7
P
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
326
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
6.7
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.07
Passing Yards
311
217
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.15
Rushing Yards
85
109
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
17%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.15
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-28
-7
Sack EPA
-6.18
-1.45
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
38
49
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-3.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
Steelers+7.0
Expected Value
+15.6%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+96.3
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
-58.0
Home QB Adjustment
-32.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.2
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
92.0
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-32.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
7
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
27
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U