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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ browns week 3, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
1-1
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
0
29
CLEBrowns
1-1
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
14
0
3
17
Browns
7
6
3
7
23

Spread

CLE logo
-4

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
308
376
Total Plays
55
71
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.08
Passing Yards
204
205
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.05
Rushing Yards
104
171
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.94
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-15
Sack EPA
-1.29
-4.22
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
25
24
Penalty EPA
-3.88
-3.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.8
Home QB Adjustment
-66.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
45.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Value
Ptile
09/27
-0.9
38
11/29
-2.7
25
12/06
0.7
49
12/13
3.3
68
12/20
-0.1
45
12/27
2.2
60
01/03
2.9
66
01/10
1.4
54
09/11
-1.7
40
09/18
-3.9
24
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-66.7
Value
Ptile
12/16
-4.3
24
12/22
-2.9
32
12/29
-6.5
14
09/26
1.1
61
10/03
-1.5
42
10/10
-0.7
48
11/07
-7.8
9
11/11
-7.2
11
09/11
-3.2
27
09/18
2.3
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
23
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25

EPA

EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
11
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
10
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9

EPA

EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
4
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
20
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-31
L
L
O
12/05
1
W
W
U
12/09
-8
L
L
O
12/19
6
W
W
U
12/26
-26
L
L
O
01/03
12
W
W
U
01/09
3
W
W
U
01/16
-21
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
W
U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
-6
L
L
U
12/12
2
W
L
O
12/20
-2
L
W
U
12/25
-2
L
W
U
01/03
-12
L
L
U
01/09
5
W
L
U
09/11
2
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
L
O