PITSteelers
1-1
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
029
CLEBrowns
1-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
14
0
3
17
Browns
7
6
3
7
23
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
376
Total Plays
55
71
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.08
Passing Yards
204
205
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.05
Rushing Yards
104
171
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.94
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-15
Sack EPA
-1.29
-4.22
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
25
24
Penalty EPA
-3.88
-3.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model56.2%
Spread Pick
Steelers+4.0
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+20.8
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.8
Home QB Adjustment
-66.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
43.3
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-66.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
23
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
10
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
4
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U