PITSteelers
4-5
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
27 mph
9
CLEBrowns
0-10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
27 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
11
3
1
18
Browns
0
0
3
6
9
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
209
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
4.8
3.4
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
176
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
21/41(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.19
Rushing Yards
146
33
Rush Attempts
28
13
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.47
Sacks
--
8
Sack Yards
--
-70
Sack EPA
--
-18.67
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
70
52
Penalty EPA
-10.56
-5.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-247
Home nfelo
1,324
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
3
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
1
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
4
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
27
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U