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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ browns week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
5-4
7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
10 mph
21
CLEBrowns
3-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
0
7
Browns
7
7
0
7
21

Spread

CLE logo
-3

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
236
293
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
3.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.49
-0.24
Passing Yards
178
189
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.03
Rushing Yards
58
104
Rush Attempts
16
35
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-19.50
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-43
-4
Sack EPA
-4.09
-1.04
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
41
121
Penalty EPA
-7.12
-13.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model51.7%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+27.6
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
-22.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+84.8
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-90.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
12.0
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-90.5
Value
Ptile
09/22
-3.5
28
09/30
4.5
81
10/06
-2.1
37
10/28
-3.4
28
11/03
-1.0
47
11/10
-2.2
37
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
12/30
2.6
67
09/08
-7.2
11
09/16
-3.4
29
09/22
-6.3
14
09/29
1.9
66
10/07
-14.4
1
10/13
-0.3
50
10/27
-2.1
38
11/03
3.4
74
11/10
1.8
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
30

EPA

EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
32
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
17
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
32
25
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14

EPA

EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
18
RZ Efficiency
14
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
3
W
L
U
09/08
-30
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
L
O
09/22
-4
L
W
U
09/30
24
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/28
13
W
L
U
11/03
2
W
W
O
11/10
5
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-30
L
L
O
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/07
-28
L
L
U
10/13
-4
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-5
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
P
U