PITSteelers
5-4
7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
10 mph
21
CLEBrowns
3-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
0
7
Browns
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
293
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
3.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.49
-0.24
Passing Yards
178
189
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.03
Rushing Yards
58
104
Rush Attempts
16
35
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-19.50
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-43
-4
Sack EPA
-4.09
-1.04
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
41
121
Penalty EPA
-7.12
-13.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model52.1%
Spread Pick
Steelers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+27.3
Base HFA
+49.8
Divisional Adj
-22.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+84.8
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-90.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
14.6
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-90.5
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
32
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
17
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
32
20
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
18
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U