PITSteelers
6-4
14
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
10 mph
20
CLEBrowns
2-8
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
1
7
0
0
8
Browns
3
10
7
0
20
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
33
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
242
238
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
4.4
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.49
-0.34
Passing Yards
193
130
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.48
Rushing Yards
49
108
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.72
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
14
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
11%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
8
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
5
0
Turnover EPA
-22.62
-8.55
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-28
Sack EPA
-1.19
-5.51
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
68
90
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-9.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+65.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-66.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.5
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Batch
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-66.6
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
15
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
13
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
27
27
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
30
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U