PITSteelers
8-2
19
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
13 mph
24
CLEBrowns
2-8
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
3
13
19
Browns
0
10
0
14
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
306
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
5.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.06
Passing Yards
248
221
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.20
Rushing Yards
120
85
Rush Attempts
34
27
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.20
-10.55
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-9.08
-4.59
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
39
48
Penalty EPA
-3.62
-5.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+22.4
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
28
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
22
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U