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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ browns week 12, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
8-2
19
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
13 mph
24
CLEBrowns
2-8
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
3
13
19
Browns
0
10
0
14
24

Spread

CLE logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
368
306
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
5.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.06
Passing Yards
248
221
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.20
Rushing Yards
120
85
Rush Attempts
34
27
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.20
-10.55
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-9.08
-4.59
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
39
48
Penalty EPA
-3.62
-5.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-112
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+22.4
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
11/19
2.2
65
11/26
2.8
68
12/03
-5.2
18
12/10
-1.3
41
12/16
-1.4
40
12/24
1.3
58
10/20
5.4
81
10/28
-0.0
49
11/10
-4.2
21
11/17
-6.7
9
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
Value
Ptile
10/03
1.5
64
10/10
1.3
62
10/25
-0.9
45
10/31
-1.6
41
09/11
-0.1
52
09/18
-9.7
3
09/25
0.0
53
10/27
6.4
86
11/03
-9.9
3
11/17
5.7
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21

EPA

EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
28
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11

EPA

EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
22
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
27
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
8
W
W
U
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/22
10
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/20
22
W
W
O
10/28
8
W
W
O
11/10
1
W
W
O
11/17
2
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-16
L
L
O
09/15
5
W
W
U
09/22
-6
L
L
U
09/29
-4
L
L
U
10/06
-21
L
L
O
10/13
-4
L
W
U
10/20
-7
L
L
U
10/27
5
W
W
O
11/03
-17
L
L
U
11/17
-21
L
L
O