PITSteelers
11-4
41
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
25°F
14 mph
9
CLEBrowns
5-10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
25°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
14
17
7
3
41
Browns
0
3
0
6
9
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
225
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
6.7
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.46
-0.13
Passing Yards
318
182
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
21/44(48%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.84
-0.20
Rushing Yards
100
43
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
62%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.62
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-2.80
-5.71
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
46
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-140
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+43.9
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+43.9
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
8
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U