PITSteelers
4-2
32
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
020
ARICardinals
1-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
10
7
6
30
Cardinals
0
7
7
6
20
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
445
330
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
6.4
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.06
Passing Yards
354
257
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.05
Rushing Yards
91
73
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
50%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.40
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-15
Sack EPA
-2.04
-3.17
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
69
74
Penalty EPA
-7.52
-6.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+102.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
8
8
EPA / Rush
7
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
26
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Cardinals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
9
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
14
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U