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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ cardinals week 14, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
7-5
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
17
ARICardinals
3-8
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
4
3
7
3
17
Cardinals
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

PIT logo
-2

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
275
236
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
4.8
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.24
Passing Yards
135
165
Comp/Att
16/19(84%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.21
Rushing Yards
140
71
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.91
-10.75
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-29
Sack EPA
-3.77
-6.05
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
20
75
Penalty EPA
-2.10
-8.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-39
Home nfelo
1,352
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+65.5
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+17.3
Net QB Adjustment
+135.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-115.5
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

D. Hodges headshot

D. Hodges

Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-115.5
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.8
39
12/01
-2.1
37
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Value
Ptile
09/22
-4.8
21
09/29
-1.6
42
10/06
6.4
88
10/13
8.4
94
10/20
-5.2
19
10/27
-5.1
19
10/31
5.0
84
11/10
3.7
76
11/17
6.3
88
12/01
-7.2
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Steelers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
23

EPA

EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
28
30
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
32
20
Cardinals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Cardinals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14

EPA

EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
5
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
29
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-4
L
W
U
09/30
24
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/28
13
W
L
U
11/03
2
W
W
O
11/10
5
W
W
U
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/24
6
W
W
U
12/01
7
W
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-18
L
L
O
09/29
-17
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
1
W
W
O
10/20
6
W
W
U
10/27
-22
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-10
L
P
O
12/01
-27
L
L
U