PITSteelers
7-5
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
017
ARICardinals
3-8
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
4
3
7
3
17
Cardinals
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
236
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
4.8
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.24
Passing Yards
135
165
Comp/Att
16/19(84%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.21
Rushing Yards
140
71
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.91
-10.75
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-29
Sack EPA
-3.77
-6.05
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
20
75
Penalty EPA
-2.10
-8.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,350
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+65.1
Base HFA
+47.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+17.1
Net QB Adjustment
+135.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-115.5
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Hodges
Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-115.5
Value
Ptile
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
32
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
28
30
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Cardinals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
5
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U