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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ chargers week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
5-3
37
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
41
LACChargers
5-4
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
7
0
27
37
Chargers
7
10
10
14
41

Spread

PIT logo
+6

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
300
533
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
4.6
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.12
Passing Yards
245
374
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.37
Rushing Yards
55
159
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
22
33
Passing 1st downs
14
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
53%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
57%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
7
7
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.47
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-28
-8
Sack EPA
-3.89
-2.03
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
38
75
Penalty EPA
-7.58
-11.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+75.0
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+21.4
Net QB Adjustment
+19.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
135.2
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
12/27
7.1
89
01/10
7.3
90
09/12
-3.1
30
09/19
-1.0
45
09/26
-3.7
26
10/03
-2.0
38
10/10
2.1
69
10/17
1.3
62
10/31
-0.4
49
11/08
-1.7
40
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
01/03
6.1
84
09/12
0.8
59
09/19
0.8
59
09/26
7.2
92
10/04
1.4
63
10/10
11.6
98
10/17
-3.9
24
10/31
-5.2
18
11/07
11.9
98
11/14
-2.6
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Steelers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
19
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
17
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chargers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32

EPA

EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
16
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
17
RZ Efficiency
3
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-4-1
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
-11
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-9
L
L
U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
P
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/14
0
T
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
17
W
W
O
09/12
4
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/10
5
W
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/14
-7
L
L
U