PITSteelers
5-3
37
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
041
LACChargers
5-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
7
0
27
37
Chargers
7
10
10
14
41
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
533
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
4.6
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.12
Passing Yards
245
374
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.37
Rushing Yards
55
159
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
33
Passing 1st downs
14
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
53%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
57%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
7
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.47
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-28
-8
Sack EPA
-3.89
-2.03
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
38
75
Penalty EPA
-7.58
-11.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+75.0
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+21.4
Net QB Adjustment
+19.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
135.1
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
19
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
17
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
16
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
17
RZ Efficiency
3
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U