PITSteelers
3-2
19
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
60°F
14 mph
13
KCChiefs
5-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
60°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
0
7
17
Chiefs
3
0
0
10
13
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
439
251
Total Plays
63
52
Yards / Play
7.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
245
223
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.02
Rushing Yards
194
28
Rush Attempts
37
15
Yards / Rush
5.2
1.9
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
13
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.76
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-23
Sack EPA
-2.94
-2.64
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
57
48
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-3.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+40.3
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
-14.7
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
109.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28
EPA
EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
17
Interceptions / Game
24
9
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
9
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U