PITSteelers
1-1
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
0-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
0
0
7
17
Colts
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
241
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
6.0
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.26
Passing Yards
341
144
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
18/40(45%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.00
-0.35
Rushing Yards
67
97
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-17.84
-7.86
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-14.83
-7.86
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
21
Penalty EPA
--
-2.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model75.6%
Spread Pick
Colts+11.0
Expected Value
+23.6%
Cover Probability
63.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-134
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-40.8
Home QB Adjustment
-35.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-196.3
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-35.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
28
Yards / Game
11
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
7
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
26
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
20
28
RZ Efficiency
27
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U