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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ colts week 3, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
1-1
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
20
INDColts
0-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
0
0
7
17
Colts
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

IND logo
+11

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
408
241
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
6.0
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.26
Passing Yards
341
144
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
18/40(45%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.00
-0.35
Rushing Yards
67
97
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-17.84
-7.86
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-14.83
-7.86
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
21
Penalty EPA
--
-2.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market82.5%
Model75.6%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+11.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+23.6%
Cover Probability
63.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-135
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-40.8
Home QB Adjustment
-35.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-196.6
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
12/05
-2.0
36
12/12
-0.4
46
12/19
1.1
55
12/23
5.1
83
01/02
7.7
93
01/15
-1.6
40
01/23
-5.1
17
02/06
4.3
77
09/11
-6.1
14
09/18
3.1
73
K. Collins headshot

K. Collins

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-35.2
Value
Ptile
10/18
-10.2
2
10/24
-0.3
47
11/14
-5.2
17
12/05
-8.9
5
12/09
7.8
93
12/19
-2.8
30
12/26
-6.4
12
01/02
6.1
87
09/11
-3.6
28
09/18
-4.5
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Steelers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
21
28
Yards / Game
11
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29

EPA

EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
7
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
26
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Colts logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8

EPA

EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
30
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
20
28
RZ Efficiency
27
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
3
W
W
U
12/12
16
W
W
U
12/19
-5
L
L
O
12/23
24
W
W
U
01/02
32
W
W
O
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/23
5
W
W
O
02/06
-6
L
L
O
09/11
-28
L
L
O
09/18
24
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-3
L
W
O
11/28
-22
L
L
P
12/05
-3
L
L
O
12/09
2
W
L
O
12/19
10
W
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
3
W
L
U
01/08
-1
L
L
U
09/11
-27
L
L
U
09/18
-8
L
L
O