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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ commanders week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
-
38
TBD
FedExField
79°F
4 mph
16
WASCommanders
-
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
79°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
14
10
14
38
Commanders
6
0
3
7
16

Spread

PIT logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
437
384
Total Plays
68
55
Yards / Play
6.4
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.33
-0.07
Passing Yards
290
--
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.03
Rushing Yards
147
55
Rush Attempts
30
12
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
64%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.98
-7.74
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-1.99
--
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
81
55
Penalty EPA
+3.21
-5.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+59.0
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
11/01
-6.2
11
11/08
1.2
59
11/29
4.1
79
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.6
62
12/20
5.5
85
12/27
-6.3
10
01/03
4.1
79
01/09
-1.4
40
01/17
1.3
60
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Value
Ptile
11/08
-2.5
32
11/15
5.8
86
11/22
-3.3
27
11/29
5.1
83
12/07
-0.4
49
12/13
3.1
74
12/20
12.4
99
12/26
7.3
92
01/03
4.1
79
01/10
1.1
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Steelers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24

EPA

EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
7
26
EPA / Rush
3
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
29
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
16
25
Commanders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Commanders logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8

EPA

EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
6
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
32
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
16
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
30
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/29
-9
L
L
O
12/06
35
W
W
O
12/13
13
W
W
O
12/20
7
W
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
16
W
W
U
01/09
2
W
P
U
01/17
-7
L
P
U
WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/15
33
W
W
O
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/29
6
W
W
U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
O
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-17
L
L
O