PITSteelers
-
38
TBD
FedExField
79°F
4 mph
16
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
79°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
14
10
14
38
Commanders
6
0
3
7
16
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
384
Total Plays
68
55
Yards / Play
6.4
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.33
-0.07
Passing Yards
290
--
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.03
Rushing Yards
147
55
Rush Attempts
30
12
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
64%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.98
-7.74
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-1.99
--
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
81
55
Penalty EPA
+3.21
-5.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
7
26
EPA / Rush
3
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
29
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
16
25
Commanders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8
EPA
EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
32
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
16
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U