PITSteelers
4-1
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
13 mph
22
MIADolphins
3-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
17
3
3
23
Dolphins
6
10
3
3
22
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
313
Total Plays
57
58
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.02
Passing Yards
290
249
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.01
Rushing Yards
58
64
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.51
-4.68
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-6.72
-1.62
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
24
Penalty EPA
-5.87
-2.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.2
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+67.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+67.7
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
13
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
11
7
EPA
EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
10
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
26
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
8
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U