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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ dolphins week 7, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
4-1
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
13 mph
22
MIADolphins
3-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
17
3
3
23
Dolphins
6
10
3
3
22

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
348
313
Total Plays
57
58
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.02
Passing Yards
290
249
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.01
Rushing Yards
58
64
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.51
-4.68
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-6.72
-1.62
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
24
Penalty EPA
-5.87
-2.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.2
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+67.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+67.7
Value
Ptile
10/25
-3.4
28
11/09
2.5
66
11/15
-7.3
9
11/22
7.0
89
12/06
4.7
80
12/10
-8.8
5
12/20
10.1
96
12/27
-3.6
27
01/03
3.9
75
10/17
4.3
77
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Value
Ptile
12/06
2.9
69
12/13
-0.6
46
12/20
0.1
50
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
-1.4
40
09/12
-2.3
33
09/19
-2.9
30
09/26
4.3
78
10/04
0.7
53
10/17
3.2
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Steelers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
12
13
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
11
7

EPA

EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
10
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1

EPA

EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
26
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
8
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
14
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-3
L
L
O
12/10
-7
L
L
U
12/20
1
W
L
O
12/27
3
W
P
P
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/19
8
W
W
U
09/26
25
W
W
O
10/03
-3
L
L
U
10/17
18
W
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
1
W
W
U
12/13
4
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-7
L
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
4
W
W
U
09/26
-8
L
L
O
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U