PITSteelers
2-4
10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
016
MIADolphins
3-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
0
0
10
Dolphins
13
3
0
0
16
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
372
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.07
Passing Yards
246
--
Comp/Att
32/44(73%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.16
Rushing Yards
95
111
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.63
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.20
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-1.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+56.9
Home QB Adjustment
+23.8
Away QB Adjustment
-33.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-33.2
Value
Ptile
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
24
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
23
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
1
27
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
9
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
20
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
26
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U