PITSteelers
4-7
19
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
016
ATLFalcons
5-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
13
3
0
19
Falcons
0
6
7
3
16
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
306
Total Plays
65
53
Yards / Play
5.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
160
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.21
Rushing Yards
154
146
Rush Attempts
37
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.15
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.37
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
30
48
Penalty EPA
-4.70
-5.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+54.1
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-25.5
Market Regression
-4.8
Final Difference
17.4
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-25.5
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
21
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
11
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
22
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
24
13
Falcons Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
10
Yards / Game
24
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U